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At first, Trump appeared to adopt a firm position on Ukraine. After delivering warnings of "significant consequences" during the summer if Vladimir Putin continued hindering peace discussions, the former president eventually imposed substantial penalties on Russia's two largest oil companies, these major energy companies. This move seriously impacted Putin's ability to finance his aggression in Ukraine.

However, via his recently unveiled detailed peace plan for Ukraine, which was created by both nations' officials lacking Ukrainian or European involvement, the former president has apparently returned to his Russia-friendly position.

Rewarding Invasion

The former president's initiative would in practice benefit Putin for attacking Ukraine while putting Ukraine's democracy in jeopardy. Despite bold declarations that "Ukraine's sovereignty will be upheld", large portions of the proposal effectively compromise that very autonomy. What represents a Kremlin dream would likely be a catastrophe for the nation.

Demonstrating his corporate background, Trump continues to treat the war as a mere territorial dispute, as if ceding Putin a portion of Ukrainian territory will appease the leader. However, Putin's invasion is not simply about controlling a damaged swath of deindustrialized area in Ukraine's east. It is about the nation's democratic governance – and Putin's apparent intention to eliminate it so it ceases to functions as an attractive model for the Russia's population of the democratic government that Putin's growing authoritarian rule withholds them.

Land Giveaways

Although maintaining in place the already separated regions of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, the proposal would compel Ukraine to give up the whole Donetsk region. In addition to rewarding Russia with territory that its forces have been unable to seize in over a ten years of conflict, this concession would render Ukraine's defenses severely compromised.

The area is the place of the nation's highly-touted "fortress belt", the fortified protective structures that represent a critical impediment to invading forces. Trump would have Ukraine surrender these defenses, leaving Russian forces a unobstructed route to Kyiv should he subsequently decide to restart the war.

Military Restrictions

Then, in a step that would make future fighting simpler for the Russian military, the plan would require the nation to reduce the size of its armed forces from their existing approximately 800,000 soldiers to a limit of six hundred thousand. Notably, the initiative sets no equivalent constraints on Russia's military.

Apparently as a concession to Putin's campaign to characterize Ukraine's democratically elected leadership as radicals, Trump's proposal states: "Any extremist belief system and actions must be opposed and forbidden." Seemingly to emphasize this point, it insists that "The nation will hold democratic votes in this period" of a ceasefire agreement. Meanwhile, the proposal imposes no condition that the Russian leader endanger his dictatorship by conducting democratic processes in Russia.

Defense Guarantees

To be sure, the initiative has the Russian Federation promise not to "enter other states" and to "incorporate in legislation its stance of peaceful relations towards the EU and the Ukrainian people". Yet taking into account that Putin has breached comparable accords in the past – including the Budapest accord, in which Russia promised to honor Ukraine's borders in return for relinquishing its Soviet-era atomic arms, and the 2014-2015 Minsk agreements, in which Russia promised to a halt in fighting and a handback of occupied land in eastern Ukraine to the government – for what reason should anyone have confidence in this commitment this time?

For this reason the Ukrainian government has been so adamant on international defense commitments. While the initiative threatens a "strong coordinated military response" in case the Russian Federation restart its military campaign, and provides that "The nation will receive reliable defense commitments", the specifics include fuzzy to troubling. The plan would not only deny Ukraine alliance membership but also prevent member states from stationing troops on Ukraine's soil, effectively blocking the security presence, reportedly led by Britain and France, on which Ukraine had been relying to stop Russia from replenishing his reduced forces, re-equipping, and resuming aggression.

Global Response

Another parallel deal reportedly would provide Ukraine with a Nato-style defense commitment, in which any later "major, intentional, and sustained armed attack" by the Russian Federation on Ukraine "will be treated as an attack threatening the stability and safety of the Western nations." This indicates a military response. However unlike a capable Ukraine's armed forces – the nation's best deterrent against renewed invasion – the credibility of the side agreement would hinge on the commitment of Western powers, like the US administration, to act through arms to Russia's aggression, a response they have {not