Day-to-Day Murders in Mexico Drop 37% Under the Sheinbaum Administration, Per Government Statistics

The mean number of per-day homicides monthly in the country has dropped by thirty-seven percent since President Claudia Sheinbaum began her term, according to fresh official figures. Nevertheless, security specialists have advised that murder figures could fail to signal improved national security.

Marked Drop in Daily Averages

Officials reported an average of close to 55 homicides a day in the month of November versus nearly 87 when Sheinbaum began the presidency in September of last year. This announcement was provided by the chief of the country’s national safety system, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the president’s regular press briefing on a recent Tuesday.

“The outcome in homicides that have been recorded over these past months is very important,” Sheinbaum remarked, adding that the previous month the lowest figure of homicides were recorded for any single November in the last 10 years.

Recent Background and Official Strategy

Fierce organized crime rivalries, coupled with the government’s highly militarised efforts to combat the drug gangs, have led to Mexico’s homicide numbers escalate in recent times. The figure hit a record high of 36,773 killings in 2020, according to the nation's official data office.

That meant Mexico a murder figure over 4x greater than the United States. Since then, killings have been on the decline, dropping to 33,550 the previous year. Claudia Sheinbaum has credited her public safety plan for an apparently sharper decline in killings this year.

At a news briefing in August, the head of state said: “There is a strategy, we have oversight of the plan, and we have specific tracking municipality by municipality in certain cases. The plan is effective. And we have to persist at it daily.”

The key elements of the President's safety plan involve:

• Strengthening Mexico’s domestic security force.
• Enhancing intelligence and investigative efforts.
• Greater collaboration between various authorities.

Analyst Warnings and Statistical Limitations

But, public safety experts cautioned that relying on homicide numbers to paint a picture of pacification was flawed. This is particularly true in light of the increase in different crimes such as abductions.

“It would be very good information if this was a drop, but I think we can’t just concentrate on the murder numbers and conclude: ‘Alright, great,’” said Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an specialist on Mexican organised crime. “I would be guardedly positive.”

Per the public policy research organization Mexico Evalúa, homicides in total declined by over 20% in the first 10 months of this year compared with the identical period the previous year. But, missing persons cases have increased by 15% and in some states have surged by up to 200%.

“Statistics on homicides is no longer reliable for gauging the reality of insecurity,” argued Armando Vargas, a safety analyst at Mexico Evalúa. “Firstly, we have law enforcement and prosecutors who do not have the capacity or the inclination to accurately recognize and categorize bodies. Second, organized [criminals] … have the capability to hide violent acts through abductions.”

Vargas pointed out that using month-to-month averages of daily homicides was also concerning because it could obscure days when there were notably spiking numbers of murders.

“Using the per-day average makes spikes of violence unseen,” he concluded.

Detentions and Seizures as Measures of Success

An area where the administration can cite the effectiveness of its safety plan is on detentions and confiscations. Close to 40,000 people were arrested between October 2024 and November 2025 for serious crimes, per government data. More than 20,000 firearms were taken and 311 tons of narcotics confiscated.

“Trump can't accuse President Sheinbaum of not acting, because actually she is doing a lot with these thousands of arrests, many thousands of seizures, and all the operational weakening of organised crime. It’s extremely in political terms profitable,” commented Vargas.

Persistent Unrest and Societal Frustration

But in spite of these actions, Mexico is still beset by extreme violence, with several states in the midst of cartel-fueled violence. Recently there was a high-profile killing of a well-liked local official in the region of Michoacan, among 10 local leaders killed in the past year.

Weeks after, many thousands of protesters took to the streets in the capital and across the country to voice their outrage at corruption and cartel violence.

“The federal government shares [data] in a manner to construct a story of safety. From a political standpoint it’s extremely effective, socially it’s extremely debatable,” Vargas concluded.